We have all been on one side or the other of that question during long car trips, remember? It seemed like it would never end! That is how this recession feels to me and many others. And this trip is on a very bumpy road with no fuel stops, rest rooms or scenic turnouts.

So, are we there yet? Let’s look at some real estate statistics for clues:
·        In August new listings out-paced sales by nearly 3.5 to 1.
·        At the current rate of selling property it will take over 55 months to sell what is listed today, but that is better than it has been. Last Feb. that number was 177 months! Property is selling over three times faster now.
·        Total inventory of homes is down 6% from the peak just over a year ago but is still large compared with historic levels. (note: those historic levels were so low that demand could not be met and contributed to the steep climb in prices)
·        Total inventory is now at 4815 units (homes, condos, vacant land, commercial) when Star Valley, Teton Valley and Pinedale area listings are included.
·        In Teton County, WY alone there are 650 listed residences.

You may notice that I focus on inventory statistics. It is simply that the supply side of the market now dictates the conditions. Since the inventory is high but nearing stability it is probable that prices are stabilizing now too. So, “Are we there yet?” If not, we are darned close.

Lending rates will likely have an impact on the market at some point. As the Feds spend huge amounts of money and finance debt selling it to investors, both foreign and domestic, inflation will set in and rates will rise. At first this may trigger a land rush to buy before rates rise too high. Then it will slow demand and we will no longer ask if we are there yet, but instead, ask if we can go back.

If you need a map, give me a call.

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